A Wisdom Tool to Predict Future Political Outcomes.

Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquitait, whether you want to call him political scientist or futurologist - because he uses objective scientific and mathematical methods to foresee future events within an 18-24 month time period - or the "Next Nostradamus", has created an amazingly accurate computer model that predicts the outcome of future events.

Bueno de Mesquitait teaches "game theory" or “rational choice theory,” at New York University and Stanford. He does not use a traditional approach when analyzing political situations, because he does not factor in culture, history, economics, or any of the other considerations that more traditional political scientists weigh, yet he makes predictions about various human affairs and conflicts with astounding accuracy. He uses a computer/mathematical model that starts with a set of assumptions (each actor’s motives in this case) and then breaks them down as mathematical equations and proceeds from there to see what follows logically from those assumptions.

A study, by the C.I.A., his most regular client by far, found that Bueno de Mesquita’s predictions “hit the bull’s-eye” twice as often as its own analysts did. The computer’s advantage over humans is its ability to spy unseen coalitions, but this works only when the relative positions of each actor are described accurately when he conducts his fact-gathering interviews. An astute observer, Bueno de Mesquita asks for clarification the moment an interviewee expresses doubt or contradicts himself.

“His ability to pick up on body language, to pick up on vocal intonation, to remember what people said and challenge them in nonthreatening ways — he’s a master at it,” -- Rose McDermott, a political-science professor at Brown

The Prisoner’s Dilemma, best explains Dr. Bueno de Mesquitait rational choice theory.

Two burglars are apprehended near the scene of a crime and are interrogated separately by the police. The police know these two goons did it, but they don’t know how, so they offer each one a deal. If they both confess and cooperate, they’ll both get a minor sentence of five years. If neither man confesses, they’ll both only get one year (for having been caught with some of the stolen loot on them). But, and here’s where it gets interesting, if one confesses and the other doesn’t, the one who confesses walks out scot-free while the other will do 10 years. What will they do? Will they trust each other and do what’s obviously in their best interest, which is not confess? Based on game theory’s assumptions about human nature, the math derived from this dilemma tells you squarely that the two goons will turn each other in.

Bueno de Mesquitait says “If you liberate people from the constraint of having to satisfy other people in order to advance themselves, people don’t do good things.” In other words, his model assumes the worst of people, and thus far, it's proven itself very capable of providing a correct reading.

“When people are asked to make personal sacrifices for the greater good in the longer term, they seem to find 1,001 reasons why their particular behavior is so virtuous that this one particular deviation is really O.K. I have to drive an S.U.V. because I want to protect my little children from a car accident! ”-- Bueno de Mesquitait

There is much skepticism that a computer model can truly predict the outcome of any situation in which parties can be described as trying to persuade or coerce one another. Yet it seems that his model has continuously proven itself since the 1980s, however it also appears as if it's accuracy is very dependent on it's inventor.

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Hook Line and Sinker

Forty years ago, Robert F. Kennedy, off the cuff, delivered the sad news to a large crowd of African Americans in Indianapolis who had gathered for a campaign event that Martin Luther King had been shot and killed. In an effort to offer comfort, he chose the following words of his favorite poet, Aeschylus,

Even in our sleep pain which cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart until in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom, through the awful grace of God. - Aeschylus

Susan Jacoby, author of the new book, The Age of American Unreason, believes Robert F. Kennedy's eloquent speech that day would not take place in today's political and cultural climate. Kennedy's assumption that the audience would connect with a Greek poet from 500 BC, she says”, speaks volumes about the elevation of public expression and regard for intellectualism in that period not so long ago."

Today, Ms. Jacoby says, fear of being branded an elitist in conjunction with a fear of complexity, nuance, and sophisticated knowledge due to America's reluctance to embrace intellectualism, preferring instead to passively absorb our current media culture of 24/7 infotainment, has "dumbed down" the level of public discourse in American society. She says, "We are content to live in this "dumbed down" culture feeding on and fed by an ignorant popular culture with no room for reflection, reason, or rationality."

The Bush Administration is a result and a reflection of our content-to-be-ignorant culture and society. We, the people, wanted a president we could have a beer with at the local tap room; rather than one who might know a thing or two, or even more importantly, care to know about a thing or two.

President Bush is not one of us; rather his image was transformed so that he appears to be one of us. The American people, knowing George W. Bush was born in New Haven Connecticut, was head cheerleader at Andover Prep School, attended Yale and Harvard, and used his family connections to avoid Vietnam, swallowed the image of the "macho cowboy" hook, line and sinker. The old "wolf in sheep's clothing" trick, worked like a charm. President Bush was able to carry out his agenda of not only empowering the current elite; in addition, he was able to create an entire new class of elite, simultaneously sending our young men and women off to war under false pretense. He was able to do this by condemning those who really do want to preserve democracy and who take the time think for themselves as elitist.

One presidential candidate was a hockey player; the other was a cheerleader. One is a combat veteran from a war he tried to stop; the other avoided combat in that same war while being a vigorous cheerleader for it. Yet it is the cheerleader who is seen by many as the “real man.” A remarkably similar gender change was performed on Marlboro cigarettes a half century ago; the same marketing techniques have fooled millions of Americans about their president. - Robert S. McElvaine

It's not a question of intelligence, American people are every bit as intelligent as they were in previous generations, it's more a matter of intellectual laziness. Human beings are wired to take the easy way out if possible - I know I am anyway - and it's much easier to plug ourselves in and be entertained than it is to educate ourselves about what is going on in the world around us.

Unfortunately, absence of critical thinking has severe consequences as history has proven repeatedly. The combination of our apathy, magical thinking, distraction, and choosing not to remember the past, we have become blinded to the danger signs flashing all around us.

This is the information age...it's never been easier to get information, yet it seems people are more ignorant than ever, however; this is changing and hopefully will continue to change because we are beginning to personally experience the repercussions of our own values and apathetic attitude.

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Seven Pearls Of Wisdom

I mean eight...


From the Positivity Blog:

“If you want to improve, be content to be thought foolish and stupid.”

“It is not he who reviles or strikes you who insults you, but your opinion that these things are insulting.”

“It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows.”

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.”

“He is a wise man who does not grieve for the things which he has not, but rejoices for those which he has.”

“When you are offended at any man’s fault, turn to yourself and study your own failings. Then you will forget your anger.”

“There is only one way to happiness and that is to cease worrying about things which are beyond the power of our will.”

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Age Does Matter

As Dwight D. Eisenhower said, "Any man who wants to be president is either an egomaniac or crazy"

Aging takes its toll on the ego and as a person's matures, his motivation becomes less egocentric. Life experience teaches us to feel our own needs less intensely, therefore making it possible to seek out solutions based on what is best for the whole as opposed to what is best for me.

I agree with John Edwards on most issues and I believe he would make a great president someday. However, Joe Biden would make a better president right now because he has the wisdom required to lead a country as powerful as our country is; the wisdom gained from the accumulation of knowledge resulting from direct participation in political events, from what he has observed, encountered, and undergone over almost four decades of service to this country.

I may not agree with Biden on every issue but I trust that his decisions will be based on his insight and ability to discern or judge what is best for America in the long run. He has witnessed and been a part of the democratic process for much longer than any of the other candidates and has shown he has what it takes to take on the most challenging of situations.

Of course, the aging process alone is not sufficient to determine whether one is qualified to be President of the United States...far from it. Nevertheless, when almost all other factors are equal, we should consider age only as far as how much experience a person has and how he has responded to what life has dished out.

Is he willing to admit when he is wrong? Does he have the strength and integrity to cling to what he truly believes is right despite social or political pressure, yet possesses the ability to put his ego in perspective and the flexibility to alter his opinion when presented with new knowledge and/or particular instances of personally encountering or undergoing something?

We do not know how most of the candidates will respond when the proverbial shit hits the fan but we do know how Joe Biden has responded to the most difficult circumstances and we've seen him mature gracefully willing to learn from his mistakes and grow from the trials and tribulations life has dished out.

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