Estimated Cuts to Medicaid Over Five Years

Federal Medicaid payments to states will be reduced by more than $15 billion over the next five years.

Each state was supposed to submit a state-specific analysis of the impact of each of the regulations. 43 states and the District of Columbia responded, accounting for close to 95% of total Medicaid spending. This report analyzes these responses.

The report finds that the state estimates of the fiscal impacts of the regulatory changes are significantly higher than the $15 billion impact projected by the Administration. According to the states who responded to the Committee, the regulations would reduce federal payments to them by $49.7 billion over the next five years, more than three times the Administration's estimate. In the case of one regulation, the state estimates of lost federal funds are more than ten times the Administration's estimate.