Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 07, 2011

The Real Unemployment Rate is 23%

The Shadow Government Statistics reports that as of August 2011, the real unemployment rate is at 23%.


The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.

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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Torture Numbers, and They'll Confess to Anything.

Why does it often seem as if government statistics, especially regarding the unemployment rate, fail to reflect reality? In short, because economic statistics reflect the "reality" those in power want you to see.

For example, in 1982, the Reagan administration reformulated both the unemployment rate and the Consumer Price Index in order to create the illusion that would ensure his agenda. Unemployment figures were too drastic, so the administration altered the equation by dropping people who had not looked for a job in the last two weeks, freshly unemployed teenagers, etc. Then, he decided the inflation rate should appear more "under control". So, he waved his magic wand and presto, a few things disappeared...and a few things magically appeared, for ex., the cost of renting a home replaced the cost of buying a home.  Anyway, you get the picture. It only got worse under George H.W. Bush...

Shadow Government Statistics "exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers", and provides charts and graphs reflecting what's really happening as you can see below:

Chart of U.S. Unemployment
Courtesy of ShadowStats.com

Chart of Growth in U.S.Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Courtesy of ShadowStats.com

Chart of U.S. Consumer Inflation (CPI)
Courtesy of ShadowStats.com

Chart of U.S. Money Supply Growth
Courtesy of ShadowStats.com

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Saturday, December 26, 2009

World Life Expectancy

World Life Expectancy's purpose is to stimulate meaningful research on this subject and their goal is to assist people everywhere in living longer and more productive lives.

Links:
USA Life Expectancy. - Hawaii has the longest life expectancy at 80-years old and D.C., the lowest at 72-years old.

USA Cause of Death by County

Face of Age

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Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Unemployment Numbers Manipulated?

TrimTabs’ estimates that 255,000 jobs were lost in November, while BLS reports a job loss at only 11,000. TrimTabs employment analysis uses real-time daily income tax deposits from all U.S. taxpayers to compute employment growth.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), on the other hand uses a birth/death model of small business creation/contraction, far less reliable as it does not take into account anyone who has not searched for a job in the last four weeks. In other words, due to poor economic modeling the government had overstated job creation by an average of 70,000 a month.

Eventually the government catches up, but it's a day late and a dollar short, because "eventually" can can mean anything from next month to 1-2 years down the road. But the stock market trades on the statistics reported the minute it receives the news.

What does this mean? Hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars worth of stock change hands based on the information it receives, regardless of its accuracy and considering the activity and results from the stock market largely determine how we assess economic health, along with gross domestic product, the veracity of unemployment statistics can be very important.

So, in a nutshell, the reported "health" of our economy is determined, not by the reality of its circumstances, rather an illusion, projected by the masters of manipulation in Washington and on Wall Street.

TrimTabs employment analysis, which uses real-time daily income tax deposits from all U.S. taxpayers to compute employment growth, estimated that the U.S. economy shed 255,000 jobs in November. This past month’s results were an improvement of only 10.2% from the 284,000 jobs lost in October.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy lost an astonishingly better than expected 11,000 jobs in November. In addition, the BLS revised their September and October results down a whopping 203,000 jobs, resulting in a 45% improvement over their preliminary results.

Something is not right in Kansas! Either the BLS results are wrong, our results are in error, or the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

We believe the BLS is grossly underestimating current job losses due to their flawed survey methodology. Those flaws include rigid seasonal adjustments, a mysterious birth/death adjustment, and the fact that only 40% to 60% of the BLS survey is complete by the time of the first release and subject to revision.

Seasonal adjustments are particularly problematic around the holiday season due to the large number of temporary holiday-related jobs added to payrolls in October and November which then disappear in January.

In November, the BLS revised their September and October job losses down a surprising 44.5%, or 203,000 jobs. In the twelve months ending in October, the BLS revised their job loss estimates up or down by a staggering 679,000 jobs, or 13.0%. Until this past month, these revisions brought the BLS’ revised estimates to within a couple percent of TrimTabs’ original estimates. Charles Biderman, founder and CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research,

Links: Jobs Contract 23rd Straight Month: Unemployment Rate Drop Map of Banks that went Bust

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Wednesday, February 06, 2008

FBI Bank Crime Stats



Everything you want to know about statistics on bank robberies from violations by type of institution to loot taken and recovered to number/race/sex of perpetrators to occurrences by day of week/time of day to type of financial institution office to location of financial institution office to security devices used during crime to security devices functions to modus operandi used.

Any statistical information furnished is subject to change upon the investigation of bank robbery incidents which occurred during the second quarter of 2007.

The BCS provides a nationwide view of bank robbery crimes based on statistics contributed by FBI field offices responding to bank robberies or otherwise gathered when provided to the FBI from local and state law enforcement.

Statistics were recorded as of 07/25/2007, at FBI Headquarters.

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Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Rankings of World's Major Economies by Topic

The Economist provides rankings from Rankings from the Pocket World in Figures on over 200 topics and statistical profiles of more than 65 of the world’s major economies.

Including:

Biggest Coffee Producers

Biggest Economies

Change in Population

Cigarette Consumption

Computer Ownership

Current Account, Biggest Deficit

Current Account, Largest Surplus

Highest Car Ownership

Highest Forested Area

Highest Life Expectancy

Highest Obesity

Highest Office Rent

Higest Purchasing Power

Largest Population

Largest Stock Market Capitalization

Lowest Life Expectancy

Population per doctor

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