Greater Than 50% Probability that Dallas Ebola Victim Acquired Disease On Flight

Odds are greater than 50%--68%-- that Thomas Duncan acquired Ebola from someone who had the virus during his airplane trip on on Sept 18th--flight # SN1247

From Gotnews:

“Thomas Duncan flew from Monrovia (ROB) to Brussels (BRU) on Brussels Airlines flight 1247 (SN1247) which departed ROB on Thurs. Sept. 18 and arrived in BRU early moring Fri. Sept. 19. He did not depart BRU until the next day aboard United Airlines flight (UA951) which arrived at Dulles (IAD) the same day. He had a round-trip ticket, which was purchased on Sept. 2 from an IATA accredited travel agency in Lagos, Nigeria. It appears his ticket was purchased by a company named “Silson Global Business Liberia Ltd.”. His return flight was scheduled to depart Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) on Oct. 19. The return flight was scheduled for DFW-IAD-BRU-FNA (FNA is Lungi Intl Airport in Freetown, Sierra Leone).

From NBC news:

“Ten experts from the Centers for Disease Control are tracking down those who made contact with Thomas Eric Duncan, the man diagnosed with the Ebola virus, in the days he was sick before being checked in to Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital.

links:

Experts: Ebola Could be Transmitted “At a Distance” From Infected Victims

“In a piece published by CIDRAP, the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, authors Dr Lisa Brosseau and Dr Rachael Jones highlight how Ebola currently has “unclear modes of transmission.”

“We believe there is scientific and epidemiologic evidence that Ebola virus has the potential to be transmitted via infectious aerosol particles both near and at a distance from infected patients, which means that healthcare workers should be wearing respirators, not facemasks,” states the article.